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Causality Between Tourism And Economic Development: The Quantile-On-Quantile Analysis Of Eight Central Provinces in China
Journal
Singapore Economic Review
ISSN
02175908
Date Issued
2022-01-01
Author(s)
Wu, Tsung Pao
Wu, Hung Che
Wang, Chien Ming
Wu, Cheng Feng
Hsueh, Hsin Pei
Abstract
This paper aims to examine the relationship between tourism and economic growth in China's eight central provinces through the annual data from 1995 to 2019 using quantile-on-quantile approaches. Results show a positive relationship between tourism and economic growth for China's eight central provinces considered with substantial variations across provinces and quantiles within each province. The weakest relationship was noted for Shanxi, possibly because of the limited importance of the tourism sector relative to other major economic activities in this province. For Heilongjiang, Hubei, Hunan and Jilin, the most pronounced relationship between tourism activities and economic growth was observed only during the period of a deep economic upturn. The main reason for the economic downturn is that economic development during the periods of severe acute respiratory syndrome, avian influenza, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and coronavirus disease 2019 pandemics impacted tourist arrivals. Important provincial-specific policy implications may be drawn from these findings.
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