What if Lockdown is Removed? District Level Predictions for Maharashtra and Gujarat

Throughout the world everyday, thousands of people are getting infected and hundreds are dying in each country due to an pandemic caused by the outbreak of COVID-19. Starting from Wuhan, this virus has almost travelled each and every country infecting millions of people. In the absence of any vaccine till date and no confirmation of herd immunity (D’Souza and Dowdy (2020)), if any, the world is depending on some non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to curb the spread of COVID-19. India is no exception. After three consecutive lockdown spells, India has entered into lockdown 4.0 from May 18, 2020, with some relaxations. Lockdown has a huge negative impact on the economy. This study aims to predict the future in few districts of two selected states (Maharashtra and Gujarat) of India if lockdown is removed or partially implemented. A statistical model based on renewal process has been used for prediction. A hierarchical Bayesian method has been used for this data. Predictions have been made till June 30, 2020, for each district of the two states (Maharashtra and Gujarat) under this study.